More information on Polling and Voters First Pledge

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Here is a section of the results from the polling we co-released with other reform organizations on Wednesday regarding the political impact of signing -- or not signing -- the Voters First Pledge.

 

On a generic ballot test between Candidate A, who has taken positions in line with the Republican Party, and Candidate B, who has taken positions in line with the Democratic Party, Candidate A has a 16 point lead:

 

Now, I would like to read you a description of two possible candidates for Congress. Neither one has served in Congress before.

 

[READ AND ROTATE DESCRIPTIONS]

 

_ Candidate A believes our country is facing challenging times and we will need leaders who will focus on keeping America strong, secure and free. He supports cutting taxes for working families and cracking down on illegal immigration. Candidate A has been a staunch defender of our right to bear arms, He is also deeply troubled by the moral decline in our country and has pledged to support a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and woman.

 

_ Candidate B believes our country needs a new direction that puts working families first for a change. He knows that families depend upon good paying jobs and will fight to end tax breaks for companies that outsource jobs overseas. He will fight to raise the minimum wage, and take on the drug and insurance companies to reduce health care costs. And he believes have a firm timetable to bring our troops home from the war in Iraq as soon as possible. Candidate B believes that we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil and develop alternative sources of energy.

 

If the election for Congress were held today and the candidates were [ROTATE] _Candidate A and _Candidate B for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?

 

[IF CANDIDATE:] Would you say you support that candidate strongly or not strongly?

[IF UNDECIDED:] Well, toward which candidate do you lean? [REPEAT CANDIDATES NAMES]

 

Candidate A --Total: 37%

Candidate A -- Strong: 25

Candidate A -- Not Strong: 6

Candidate A -- Undecided, Lean: 5

 

Undecided/Don't Know/Refused: 10%

 

Candidate B --Total: 53%

Candidate B -- Strong: 36

Candidate B -- Not Strong: 12

Candidate B -- Undecided, Lean: 4

 

When you add in one candidate taking the Voters First Pledge, the results shift dramatically. Here are just the totals with partisan break down:

 

Candidate A (generic Republican) takes the pledge and Candidate B (generic Democrat) refuses:

 

Candidate A -- Total: 49%

Undecided/Don't Know/Refused -- 12

Candidate B -- Total: 39

 

Net shift to Candidate A: +26%

 

Candidate B (generic Democrat) takes the pledge and Candidate A (generic Republican) refuses:

 

Candidate A -- Total: 29%

Undecided/Don't Know/Refused -- 13

Candidate B -- Total: 58

 

Net shift to Candidate B: +13%

 

It's also critical to look at who moves towards each candidate in the scenarios above.

 

  • For the Republican candidate who signs, they gain 17% with indpendents, and 16% with Democratic voters. The Democratic candidate who refuses loses 17% among Democrats and 16% among independents.
  • When a Democratic candidate signs the pledge and the Republican refuses, the Republican loses 19% from base GOP voters (from 65% to 46%), and a huge 24% among independents. The Democratic candidate gains in both these areas...

 

Seems to me that there ought to be a scramble to get on the Voters First Pledge.